Philippine Stock Market Research


Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

from Corpecon Research


Aaah, the Mall

December 20, 2010

TriNoMa Xmas Sale

Philippine malls are the best in the world.  With the onset of the Xmas season, investors cannot ignore the multitudes flocking to malls for their Xmas shopping.  Clearly, the winner in this massive 4Q consumer spending is mall giant SMPH and the retail giant SM.  RLC, ALI, FLI and MEG charge fixed rent, while SMPH mainly basks in variable rent getting a percentage to every sale made by their tenants.  Malls are not only shopping centers but recreational centers as well.  The main attractions of course, are the cinemas followed by the bowling lanes, billiard tables and game machines.  Cinema ticket sales follow rent as a far second source of revenues of malls.  All the mall-related stocks will benefit from the string of high-budget movies showing in 2011.  This is probably the biggest batch of major productions in the past decade.  SMPH’s cinema ticket sales grew by 41% in 9M10.  4Q remains strong with Part 1 of the last Harry Potter film and Tron Legacy.

2011 Potential Blockbusters

1.     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

2.     Transformers 3:  Dark of the Moon

3.     Pirates of the Caribbean:  On Stranger Tides

4.     The Green Hornet

5.     The Hangover 2

6.     Green Lantern

7.     Thor

8.     Captain America:  The First Avenger

9.     Cars 2

10.  Kung Fu Panda:  The Kaboom of Doom

11.  Smurfs 3D

12.  Super 8 (an alien conspiracy movie by JJ Abrams and Steven Spielberg)

13.  Rise of the Apes (a Planet of the Apes prequel)

14.  Cowboys Vs. Aliens

15.  X-men:  First Class

16.  Twilight Saga:  Breaking Dawn Part 1

17.  Fast Five (fifth Fast and the Furious film)

18.  Battle Los Angeles (alien invasion film)

19.  Sucker Punch (fantasy action film from Zach Snyder)

20.  Real Steel (robot action film starring Hugh Jackman)

21.  I Am Number Four (alien conspiracy film)

Of the property stocks with malls, we like FLI (Festival Mall), RLC (Robinsons Malls) and AC (a reasonable stock investment compared to ALI with the TriNoMa mall and others).  We’d like to catch SMPH at the lower PHP8 level if we can, especially with the current market weakness, and SM at PHP500.

SM City North EDSA Sky Garden


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